Georgi Kocharkov

Georgi Kocharkov

Senior Economist, Research Centre, Deutsche Bundesbank Member of the Bulgarian Council for Economic Analyses

Household Finance · Expectations · Macroeconomics · Public Economics

georgi@kocharkov.com CV (PDF)

NowNovember 2026
  • Back at the Bundesbank Research Centre, now working full-time on research
  • Coordinating the Macroeconomics and Finance working group of the Bulgarian Council for Economic Analyses
  • Running survey experiments on household expectations around Bulgaria's euro adoption and on corporate taxation in Germany

About

I am an economist at the Bundesbank Research Centre in Frankfurt. From 2024 to 2026 I was at the European Central Bank, working on the Consumer Expectations Survey. Before joining the Bundesbank in 2019, I was Assistant Professor of Economics at Goethe University Frankfurt and at the University of Konstanz.

My current research studies household expectations and behaviour using survey data and survey experiments, with a focus on consumption, saving, housing and fiscal policy. Earlier work used quantitative macroeconomic models to study taxation, homeownership and wealth, and family economics. I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.

Since 2023 I have been a member of the Bulgarian Council for Economic Analyses, an advisory body to the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Bulgaria.

Work in Progress

  1. Expectations in Transition: Euro Adoption in Bulgaria
    evidence from household surveys around the 2026 changeover
  2. Housing Consumption and Wedges
    evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey
  3. Earnings Elasticities in the Euro Area
    evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey
  4. Tariffs and Consumer Preferences
    evidence from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
  5. Corporate Taxation and Retained Profits: A Survey Experiment
    randomized evidence from Germany
  6. Will Europe Drive Electric?
    evidence from a randomized information experiment in the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey

Publications

  1. Understanding Spatial House Price Dynamics in a Housing Boom
    with Leo Kaas and Nicolas Syrichas. Economic Theory, 2026
  2. A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy
    with Rüdiger Bachmann, Benjamin Born, Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Ralph Lütticke and Michael Weber. Review of Economic Studies, 2026
  3. Taxation of Top Incomes and Tax Avoidance
    with Alessandro Di Nola, Almuth Scholl, Anna-Mariia Tkhir and Haomin Wang. International Economic Review, 66(3), 983–1018, 2025
  4. Teenage Childbearing and the Welfare State
    with Alessandro Di Nola, Jan Mellert and Haomin Wang. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 29, e31, 2025
  5. Unconventional Fiscal Policy at Work
    with Rüdiger Bachmann, Benjamin Born, Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Ralph Lütticke and Michael Weber. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 113, 61–64, 2023
  6. A Note on Contraception, Social Norms and Growth
    with Tiago Cavalcanti and Cezar Santos. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(3), 869–878, 2023
  7. The Aggregate Effects of Tax Evasion
    with Alessandro Di Nola, Almuth Scholl and Anna-Mariia Tkhir. Review of Economic Dynamics, 40, 198–227, 2021
  8. Family Planning and Development: Aggregate Effects of Contraceptive Use
    with Tiago Cavalcanti and Cezar Santos. Economic Journal, 131(634), 624–657, 2021
    Online Appendix
  9. Low Homeownership in Germany: A Quantitative Exploration
    with Leo Kaas, Edgar Preugschat and Nawid Siassi. Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(1), 128–164, 2021
  10. Envelope Wages, Hidden Production and Labor Productivity
    with Alessandro Di Nola and Aleksandar Vasilev. B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 19(2), 1–30, 2019
  11. Wealth Inequality and Homeownership in Europe
    with Leo Kaas and Edgar Preugschat. Annals of Economics and Statistics, 136, 27–54, 2019
  12. Does Homeownership Promote Wealth Accumulation?
    with Leo Kaas and Edgar Preugschat. Applied Economics Letters, 26(14), 1186–1191, 2019
  13. Technology and the Changing Family: A Unified Model of Marriage, Divorce, Educational Attainment and Married Female Labor-Force Participation
    with Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Cezar Santos. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8(1), 1–41, 2016
  14. Marry Your Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality
    with Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Cezar Santos. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 104(5), 348–353, 2014
    Old versionCorrigendum

Policy

  1. What Drives Euro Area Consumers to Chinese E-commerce Platforms
    with Maria Dimou, Maarten Dossche, Teresa Hütten and Omiros Kouvavas. The ECB Blog, July 2026
  2. Consumption and Saving amid Uncertainty: Recent Insights from the CES
    with Maria Dimou, Maarten Dossche and Teresa Hütten. ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1, 2026
  3. The 2021-23 High Inflation Episode and Inequality: Insights from the Consumer Expectations Survey
    with Neus Dausà i Noguera and Omiros Kouvavas. ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 7, 2025
  4. Consumer Expectations and Actions during the Recent Trade Tensions
    with Adam Baumann, Luca Caprari, Maarten Dossche and Omiros Kouvavas. ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 6, 2025
    VoxEU column
  5. Higher Defence Spending and Its Impact on Household Expectations
    with Adam Baumann, Cristina Checherita-Westphal and Steffen Osterloh. ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 5, 2025
  6. Consumer Confidence and Household Consumption Decisions
    with Adam Baumann, Luca Caprari, Maarten Dossche and Omiros Kouvavas. ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 5, 2025
  7. Report on Monetary Policy Tools, Strategy and Communication
    with the ECB Strategy Review workstream. ECB Occasional Paper No. 372, 2025
  8. A Strategic View on the Economic and Inflation Environment in the Euro Area
    with the ECB Strategy Review workstream. ECB Occasional Paper No. 371, 2025
  9. How Will European Consumers React to US Tariffs?
    with Adam Baumann, Luca Caprari, Maarten Dossche and Omiros Kouvavas. The ECB Blog, April 2025
  10. Are Real Incomes Increasing or Not? Household Perceptions and Their Role for Consumption
    with Adam Baumann, Luca Caprari and Omiros Kouvavas. ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1, 2025
  11. Taxation of Top Incomes and Tax Avoidance
    with Alessandro Di Nola, Almuth Scholl, Anna-Mariia Tkhir and Haomin Wang. SUERF Policy Brief, 2025
  12. Demographic Challenges for the Bulgarian Economy
    with Kaloyan Ganev, Elitsa Dimitrova, Gueorgui Kambourov, Plamen Nenov and Ralitsa Simeonova-Ganeva. BCEA Policy Brief No. 8, October 2024
    AppendixBCEA page
  13. How Do Income Tax Rates Affect Taxable Income in Bulgaria?
    with Gueorgui Kambourov. BCEA Policy Brief No. 3, September 2024
    AppendixBCEA page
  14. A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy
    with Rüdiger Bachmann, Benjamin Born, Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Ralph Lütticke and Michael Weber. VoxEU, November 2021
    Becker Friedman InstituteNBER Digest
  15. Clear, Consistent and Engaging: ECB Monetary Policy Communication in a Changing World
    with the ECB work stream on monetary policy communications. ECB Occasional Paper No. 274, 2021
  16. Households' Expectations and Unintended Consequences of Policy Announcements
    with Olga Goldfayn-Frank and Michael Weber. Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief No. 34, 2020
  17. Reasons for the Low Homeownership Rate in Germany
    with Leo Kaas, Edgar Preugschat and Nawid Siassi. Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief No. 30, 2020
  18. US Income Inequality and Assortative Marriages
    with Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Cezar Santos. VoxEU, February 2014